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tv   Closing Bell  CNBC  October 30, 2012 3:00pm-4:00pm EDT

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our local law enforcement, our first responders are being swamped to the extent that everybody can be out there looking out for their neighbors, especially older folks. i think that's really important. if you've got a neighbor nearby, you're not sure how they're handling a power outage, flooding, et cetera, go over, visit them, knock on their door, make sure they're doing okay. that can make a big difference. the public can be the eyes and ears in terms of identifying unmet needs. second thing, the reason we're here is because the red cross knows what it's doing when it comes to emergency response. so for people all across the country who have not been affected, now's the time to show the kind of generosity that, you know, makes america the greatest nation on earth and a good place to express that generosity is by contributing to the red cross. obviously, you can go on their website. the red cross knows what they're
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doing. they're in close contact with federal, state, and local officials. they'll make sure we get the resources to those families as swiftly as possible. again, i want to thank everybody here who's doing such a great job when it comes to the disaster response. the final message i just say is, you know, during the darkness of the storm, i think we also saw what's brightest in america. i mean, i think all of us obviously have been shocked by the force of mother nature as we watch it on television. at the same time, we've also seen nurses at nyu hospital carrying fragile newborns to safety. we've seen incredibly brave firefighters in queens waist deep in water battling infernos and rescuing people in boats. one of my favorite stories is in north carolina. the coast guard going out to save a sinking ship. they sent a rescue swimmer out.
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the rescue swimmer said, hi, i'm dan. i understand you guys need a ride. you know, that kind of spirit of resilience and strength, but most importantly looking out for one another, that's why we always bounce back from these kinds of disasters. this is a tough time for a lot of people. millions of folks all across the eastern seaboard. but america's tougher. we're tougher because we pull together. we leave nobody behind. we make sure that we respond as a nation and remind ourselves that whenever an american is in need, all of us stand together to make sure that we're providing the help that's necessary. so i just want to thank the incredible response that we've already seen, but i do want to remind people, this is going to take some time. it is not going to be easy for a lot of these communities to
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recover swiftly. so it's going to be important that we sustain that spirit of resilience, that we continue to be good neighbors for the duration until everybody's back on their feet. all right? thank you very much, everybody. thank you, red cross. [ applause ] >> that was president obama at red cross headquarters in washington with some words of encouragement in the aftermath of superstorm sandy. we welcome you to "closing bell." mari maria, how are you doing? >> i'm doing well. i'm coming to you live from rockefeller center in new york city. the market closed once again today. it is back to business tomorrow, though, with the new york stock exchange and the nasdaq announcing plans for normal trading hours tomorrow. >> i'm bill griffeth. the superstorm did put the brakes on wall street for those two days. the death toll, unfortunately, continues to rise.
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millions are still without power across several states and will be for several days. but tomorrow will mark a big step toward normalcy for america an its economy as the stock market gets set to open once again. the big question now is, what happens when that opening bell rings tomorrow morning after such a long hiatus and such a disastrous storm? >> really unprecedented. we have team coverage today. scott cohn with the latest on the flooding near wall street. courtney reagan is monitoring the power outages. jackie deangelis is in a new jersey town. we kick it off with bob. you spoke a short time ago with the ceo of the nyc. can it really be business as usual tomorrow? what are you expecting? >> that's what they're hoping for, maria. they said the magic words. trading will resume at the nyse and other exchanges.
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duncan told me a short while ago it was all subpoeystems go. >> we've had people on site throughout the evening, and we g got the report early this morning that there was no issue with the building. it had not been compromised. so once we heard that, we have been operatie ining under the assumption we would be under normal business trading tomorrow. >> meanwhile, they said they spent the morning with brokerage firms to make sure all their systems could connect with the nyse. now, there's been pressure on all of the exchanges to open tomorrow since it is the last day of the trading month. many funds report their gains and losses on a monthly basis. for some mutual funds, tomorrow is the final day of the year. i guess the final question, whether or not we'll see haf ea
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volume or not. i suspect we will as some firms want to get rid of their winners and losers. >> what about infrastructure of lower manhattan? one of the reasons they didn't open is you couldn't get workers down to lower manhattan. the subways are not working. >> the key is that it looks like the bridge, tunnels are all going to be open. it wasn't necessary to have the subways open. they only needed about 200 people to open the floor of the nyse. they're bringing people in the night before. some people are already there. >> bob, thanks. we'll be checking back with you. maria. >> thank you. so what awaits traders on wall street beginning tomorrow morning? scott cohn is in lower manhattan right now. he's looking at the latest to the damage at the nation's financial capital. what can you tell us? >> well, maria, for those that come into the city tomorrow, they can expect it'll take a long time to get here. as bob said, the bridges and tunnels are open, but there is no mass transit coming into manhattan to speak of. there are buses that are going to be running, but just think about it. if you're not from around here,
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a bus versus a subway train or a commuter rail line is a completely different animal. so they're going to be dealing with that. they're going to be dealing with widespread power outages still. the exchange has power. a lot of buildings are on back-up power. for the most part, lower manhattan, really anything south of the empire state building, has no power. they're also going to be dealing with telecom disruptions. reports we've been getting from major carriers and experiences that we've been having down here for the last day or so. particularly as people got sbba into the swing of things. e-mails are taking longer to go through. so the city is back up in terms of getting exchanges going. in terms of the infrastructure of this city, that is still a long climb. bill and maria. >> all right. scott cohn, thank you very much. obviously, sandy has left millions across the northeast without power, crippling businesses and families. courtney reagan has the latest
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details. >> that's right. the biggest devastation is the 30 lives lost as a result of sandy. sadly, that number could couldn't to grow. mayor bloomberg not giving a time for restoration at th this point due to considerable flooding. early inspections reveal the storms devastated the new jersey's transit. however, washington, d.c.'s mass transit system is restoring bus and rail service at this time. boston service has resumed. damage could top $20 billion in economic losses with insured
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losses ranging between $5 billion and $10 billion. again, that's just an early estimate. laguardia and new york airports will be closed wednesday, though governor cuomo says jfk may open tomorrow. boston and d.c. airports are open. the boston globe is reporting the city's mayor says trick-or-treat is on. maria. >> well, that's good news. thank you so much, court. parts of new jersey simply devastated by sandy. an entire town under water under a levee break overnight. jackie deangelis is in new jersey following this developing story. jackie. >> good afternoon, maria. we are here in town where everything has been shut down. we did see people earlier tonight being evacuated by emergency crews. fest by boat throughout the streets from their homes and then on to bus where is they got to higher ground. we were asking some people how they survived the evening with the damage. they told us the water started
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coming around 10:00 last night. between 10:00 and midnight flooding their basements and moving up slowly. they kept moving up their homes to stay dry. when the evacuation crews came this morning, it took many hours to get people out. some people put their wading boots on and starting walking themselves. it's a small community here, but it's not just this area that was damaged as a result of this. also, hackensack is dealing with this. this is the type of problem that's not going to go away overnight. of course, we had a lot of people who were very uncomfortable, very scared, and are looking to see what's going to happen and how this water surge is going to remove and leave the area to restore their houses. of course, a lot of monetary damage done as well. bill. >> jackie deangelis in new jersey. thank you very much. obviously, this is not just about the northeast. this has national implications because thousands of americans remain stranded at airports across the country in the wake
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of sandy. others are waiting for the green light to tell them when they can head out on business. phil lebeau is in atlanta. >> at least when it comes to new york, it's going to be a while, bill. here's the reason why. we had an update a few hours ago from mayor michael bloomberg. here's his assessment of the airports in new york. >> all major airports serving the metro area are closed today. runways are flooded, and there are no flights leaving or arriving. how much damage was done to the navigation equipment and lighting around them, we don't know yet. >> how bad is the flooding at laguardia? take a look at these pictures from jetblue. this says it all. there is substantial water still on the runways there at laguardia. it may take some time before that airport is open. because it will take some time, we're still seeing a number of planes parked on tarmacs, like
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the one here in atlanta. bank of america, by the way, estimates sandy may cut airline profits by $100 million, ref knew by $ -- revenue by $500 million. when you look at the number of cancellations, we expect to hear about more this afternoon. they are coming down in number because you've got d.c., boston, and philly open. but those three airports in new york, more cancellations are coming that way. guys, back to you. >> phil, thank you very much. be sure to catch cnbc's special programming tonight "sandy: the path of destruction." we get underway tonight at 7:00 p.m. eastern time. >> so how should you be investing when wall street opens tomorrow? this is uncharted territory. stay tuned for information you'll want to have. >> also, find out how much this could cost the exchanges. that could be another reason to get up and running again. and you see this collapsing crane in new york city. an extraordinary picture. much more on this incredible
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video, plus a lawyer who says these kinds of accidents happen because law makers are putting developments before safety. we're back in a moment. or that printing in color had to cost a fortune. nobody said an all-in-one had to be bulky. or that you had to print from your desk. at least, nobody said it to us. introducing the business smart inkjet all-in-one series from brother. easy to use, it's the ultimate combination of speed, small size, and low-cost printing.
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welcome back. after hurricane sandy shut down the new york stock exchange for two days, it will finally reopen for business tomorrow for a normal trading session. >> but the effects of that monster storm are still being felt as new york city's transportation system remains crippled. so what kind of a trading day can we expect? let's ask our market experts. steve liesman is with me here in studio. we have larry glazer of mayflowered ed ed a vied ed adv farr. >> tomorrow's significant because it's month's end, but it's also year end for mutual fund companies. what would be thin volume may be high volume tomorrow as they scramble to close out their backs tomorrow. >> that's a really good point.
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the financial impact from a two-day shut down of the market is one thing. on top of that, you have the end of the month, end of the quarter. that creates some obstacles for folks. how do you see it? >> i think that what was spread over three days will be jammed into one. i would expect to see higher volumes, higher volatility. otherwise, we've seen this horrible natural disaster hit the east coast. i mean, it's been immense. wall street has had a chance to process the information. so i think perhaps overall a little less volitys a, kind of . >> steve, we're still trying to get our arms around the impact all of this will have on economic growth, right? >> yeah, the estimates i'm seeing, bill, are, you know, put katrina at one end. that was $100 billion. put irene at another end.
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that was a $13 billion event. i've seen 30 to 50. it feels, especially after you see that aerial video of what happens on the shores of new jersey, like it may be more along the 30 to 50 range when you talk about total property damage and you talk also about lost business activity. it was down in wall street. >> especially at a time when the economy was -- there was a sense it was starting to slow down again. we haven't had the strongest economy anyway. are we more vulnerable to this? >> i don't want to say there's an up side to this, but you could have a situation where some of the construction and some of the rebuilding happens in the same quarter where you had the business loss, so you have a really net no change to gdp. if there are major construction projects undertaken -- for example, let's say they decide the biggest financial center in the world should not be a foot over sea level, that's a major
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investment that could have a positive back on gdp. >> that's a great point, steve. as far as the idea that we have this last day of the month tomorrow and we will see some repositioning, michael, are you expecting there will be a scramble to get all the bookkeeping and window dressing done and you'll want to see people get out of positions? in other words, a selloff. >> yeah, well, i think you're going to see both sides of it, right, maria. from the hedge fund side, you're going to see the long and short positions both need to cover. you're going to see those who want window dressing. you're going to see them reposition things in their portfolio to make sure the right snapshot is there for their customers at month end. that should add the volatility. i don't know it will go to a selloff. to steve's comments, there's an excellent article at cnbc.com going through the effects of the different hurricanes. finally, it's my dad's 87th birthday. happy birthday. >> happy birthday, mr. farr. we're looking at live pictures
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from our nbc cameras. this is in new jersey. we're seeing more evidence of the devastation of the tremendous flooding that has affected the garden state. >> the history of these things is they have tended to underestimate the economic impact and total destruction early on in these disasters. they tend to upgrade as time goes by. >> last statement, larry. >> one point on window dressing tomorrow. normally we'd expect to see the best performing stocks of the year up on window dressing. those will not do well because they're companies that have been affected by this. it's going to be an unusual window dressing period. mutual fund companies are staffed and looking to take advantage of it. they know this is going to happen. >> all right. we'll be watching. thanks so much. >> good to see you guys, as always. so the new york stock exchange dark for a second straight day due to weather. it's the very first time this has happened since 1888.
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how much money is on the line as a result of all of this? and then we'll hear from one of the few markets actually open during the storm. cme group executive is with us. he'll be with me live later on the "closing bell." stay with us. i look at her, and i just want to give her everything. yeah, you -- you know,
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welcome back. superstorm sandy causing billions in damages across the east coast today. but how much will it cost the government's disaster refund
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leaf fu -- relief fund, and is there enough to cover it? eamon javers is here with more. >> you can see a very swollen potomac river. you can see a lot of debris going down the river. we've seen entire trees floating by our position here. the potomac has stayed in its banks. over here, they have these massive 20-foot flood walls that were ready to roll in case the river breached its banks last night. so far, so good here. as for the federal government's response, we just had a conference call with fema. they have about $3.6 billion left in their disaster contingency fund. that's as of october 26th. they're also saying that president obama when he made that major disaster declaration for new jersey and for new york, he did that verbally. what that meant was they were able to cut through a lot of the red tape and move this process along and get the response going even before the disaster happened. they're also saying that fema is
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dispatching housing inspectors to go out and take a look at the claims. they want to avoid any kind of massive fraud problems. they say they've been able to bring that down over the past couple years. they'd like to continue to do that. they're going to have boots on the ground verifying some of these housing disaster claims in person. so a lot of response here from the federal government across the board. so far, the folks at fema telling us they think they have enough money to do the job. >> all right. thanks so much, eamon javers. >> and from government losses to trading losses. we know we won't be getting a check from fema, so what will two days of tno trading cost th exchanges? >> rich, thanks very much for joining us. what's your estimate? is cost a factor in getting trading up tomorrow? how much ultimately do you think that revenue has been left on the table here? >> yeah, marimaria, cost isn't really an issue.
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surprisingl surprisingly, the trading revenue that's lost isn't that much. it's a little over $1 million per day for each. a million at the nasdaq and a million at the nyse. so it isn't a big factor. what people are surprised at, you know, it's a very -- the actually trading commission is a very small percentage of the revenue these days. >> are you -- what about a back-up? why did we have to go through two days of no trading when you have traders all over the place who can trade through their computers? did we really need to see this kind of a shutdown for two days? >> yeah, bill, i think one of the misperceptions out there is that the nyse was ready to go. they had announced they were going to open trading electron click. you know, close the floor but open trading yesterday. as the weather forecast got worse, as manhattan looked like a more dangerous place, i think as a group, as an industry, they came to a consensus.
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along with with the dealers who didn't want to bring in traders, you know, even a skeletal crew into manhattan and put them into harm's way, as an industry, they decided to shut down, you know, yesterday and today as well. >> it's pretty extraordinary, isn't it, rich? this hasn't happened, a two-day shut down, since 1888. and it was more about getting people to work, the people who actually worked at the exchange or worked in trading, than actual worries about the system not working, right? >> yeah, i agree. this is a unique circumstance, but i mentioned two things. one, you know, they were calling this the perfect storm. in a lot of respects, it was. number two, we've gone through some major, let's just say, technical issues with the exchanges over the past six months. you didn't want to see a day where people were, you know, where it wasn't manned fully or you had a skeleton crew.
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that was probably the second reason. you didn't want to go through a day and see any mishaps because we were going to be on changeover technology. you want to be up fully when you start trading. >> obviously new york prides itself on being the center of the world. that can cut both ways. is it right in your view when there's a storm that hits one city that nobody can trade stocks for a couple of days? >> well, you know, unfortunately still, you know, a lot of the banks, a lot of the biggest dealers are still located here. they play a big role in bringing liquidity. their people provide liquidity in the markets. again, yes, the exchanges are located here. new york is an important place for the trading community. >> what about diversification or changes that we may see to these models going forward? any lessons learned or
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differences that you would expect in the coming year as a result of this shutdown? >> yeah, i do. the exchanges, both nasdaq and nyse, have duplicate data centers. the nyse, i think, is running on a different power generation. so i think the -- people will, just as they learned, the worst can happen. they're going to double check these systems. probably the second thing is that the dealers as well have to have a better back-up plan. they can't rely even on skeletal crews. >> all right. rich, good to talk with you. thanks so much. we appreciate your time tonight. >> have a great day. >> we'll see you soon. coming up, we'll hear from the man who used to the run the new york stock exchange. we'll get his take on reopening the new york stock exchange after the super storm. stay with us on that. >> meanwhile, superstorm sandy devastating not just the east coast but business all across
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america. when we come back, we'll look at the fallout on the financial sector. and how will this storm impact next week's presidential election? ed rendell will join us live. that's coming up on the "closing bell." stay with us. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 this morning, i'm going to trade in hong kong. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 after that, it's on to germany. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 then tonight, i'm trading 9500 miles away in japan. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 with the new global account from schwab, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i hunt down opportunities around the world tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 as if i'm right there. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and i'm in total control because i can trade tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 directly online in 12 markets in their local currencies. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i use their global research to get an edge. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 their equity ratings show me how schwab tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 rates specific foreign stocks tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 based on things like fundamentals, momentum and risk. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and i also have access to independent tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 firms like ned davis research tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and economist intelligence unit.
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welcome back. america's banks, of course, impacted by the storm. some credit card companies already e-mailing clients offering to make cash accessible and waive fees to help assist in the aftermath of storm sandy. >> joining us from rochester, new york, is anton. is this storm an opportunity for banks, which have been vilified for some time, to improve their image in these communities? >> it really is. you know, local community banks have always been very involved in charity, as have the largest banks in this country. i think it's an opportunity for everybody to roll up their sleeves and help their communities physically as well as doing things like allowing people to take time on payments. i think in some cases, even foreclosures are going to be delayed for some time. i know freddie mac has already put out rules on that.
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i think they'll be able to get a chance to see some of the charitable nature of some of these employees. >> you have already got a number of banks waiving fees for customers impacted by the hurricane. are you expecting that to have a material impact on the bottom line of these banks? what's your take on business after this two-day shut down? >> well, it's interesting. you can really have a great debate between economists and business. some people say a lot of demand is being pulled forward because a lot of work has to be done. a lot of people are worried about the fact a lot of businesses have been disrupted and no one has been at the malls. if anybody was out before the storm, business was very active. there's no doubt there's going to be a lot of demand an construction coming out after people clear out. i think the banking industry is about to see a lot of deposits come in, using this giant transfer of money coming out of the insurance companies.
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mailing checks to people, people deposit is in their banks. banks therewill have an inflow core deposits for some time as people rebuild and try to get the damages paid for. >> to this point, for good or bad, banks have had the reputation of being reluctant to lend in this recovery from the great recession. do you think that might change now as more people need the money to rebuild? >> well, i think as people get enough of the insurance payments, i think there may certainly be effort to rebuild. i think the hardest thing on the lending that's going to slow a little bit is in the hardest hit areas were loans were already in process. that's going to be a new round of inspections that go into what kind of damage was done, what kind of work needs to be redone to get a loan approved. so there will be slow down in some of the hardest hit areas as people assess what needs to get done in terms of funding, insurance claims. i think generally speaking, banks want to lend. they're really looking for some good borrowers, people who have
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good credit history to come back to the market, want to borrow money, have enough money for down payments. the housing market is slowly healing. this is really going to slow things down. >> anton, as an investor who's probably going to be allocating money to this market, what's your first move tomorrow after the markets open after a two-day shutdown? >> i think some of the most interesting things will be the insurance companies, actually. i think maybe some of them may bet hurt quite badly. maybe an opportunity to buy some. clearly, some of the multiline insurers, like an aig or a hartford, which i own, may be good buying opportunity. if you look at some of the companies like allstate or travelers which have a lot of exposure as well, some good buying opportunities. even though the numbers are high here, potentially as high as the $20 billion range, there's enough capital to deal with this. i think it could be a buying opportunity. >> we're trying to anticipate the nature of the markets
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tomorrow when we open after two days being off. it's hard to assess that before it actually happens. do you think there might be a number of people who will want to raise cash and maybe want to sell in this market environment as they try and rebuild? is that going to be a trend for a while, do you think? >> well, certainly the insurance companies are going to have to raise cash because they're going to have to pay out. we'll see all sorts of markets that may have stocks for sale. it is month end as well. i think you have some portfolio rebalancing. some mutual funds have their fiscal year happening. i think the market will certainly get tested to see if they're ready for it because it's month end and the need for people to raise money. if you look at the markets overseas, very strong day. i think there will be some bid underneath the u.s. mark as well. volume will be the real question. i think there will be a lot of pent-up demand to trade. there's a lot of ipos that were delayed. i think there were six that were
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supposed to come this week. over $3 billion of commercial mortgage-backed securities that were ready to come this week. i think it was a real pent-up amount of supply ready to hit the market. i think the demand will be there. really, we just pushed this out a little bit. >> that's a great point. anton, what about the end of the month situation? the fact that we are at the end of the month. we typically see positioning in terms of portfolios because of the end of the month. how does that play into things? what are you expecting? >> yeah, i think that people haven't had a chance to rebalance. you've really had a couple of days taken out of, you know, people's game plans. everyone's looking at their portfolios last week saying what do i want to do next week in terms of positioning. i do expect quite a bit of volume. since we've had a good day if europe today, i think there will be some bid under the market. clearly, europe will dominate headlines as well with all the greece meetings taking place. i think europe will set the tone earl live.
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hopefully with a bid to this market, people can reposition without a lot of disruption. >> all right. we'll leave it there. great to have you on the program. thanks so much. see you soon. up next, get ready to trade. wall street ready to reopen tomorrow. how should you invest that have two-day delay? that's next. also d you see the amazing video? we were showing it yesterday. sandy leaving a construction crane dangling in the wind high atop midtown manhattan. how does this happen? we get the lawyers to chime in coming up. vving ] ♪ [ male announcer ] every car we build must make adrenaline pump and pulses quicken. ♪ to help you not just to stay alive but feel alive. the new c-class is no exception. it's a mercedes-benz, through and through. see your authorized mercedes-benz dealer for exceptional offers through mercedes-benz financial services. a short word that's a tall order.
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number of americans across the northeast without power continues to be an eye-popping number. courtney reagan has latest. >> that's right, bill. president obama says the government will do all it can to get resources to local government and that he will provide additional resources to help restore power. the wrath of sandy has killed at least 39 people, a number we unfortunately expect to grow. more than 8.5 million people are without power across 18 states. earlier today, president obama declared disaster in new york and new jersey. the president will travel to new jersey tomorrow where he'll join governor chris christie in viewing the storm damage. much of new york and new jersey remains paralyzed with power
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outages, flooded roads, and debris. governor cuomo said this is the worst storm he's ever seen in new york city. public transportation remains shut down as many subway stations are flooded. mta officials say the damage is the worst they've ever seen in the subway's 108 year history. airports are beginning to open up. jfk will open tomorrow. washington and philadelphia have been partially restored as far as service is concerned today. bill, back to you. >> courtney, thank you very much. so it's all systems go at the new york stock exchange tomorrow. the nyse and nasdaq confirming they will be opened and fully operational come tomorrow. >> on the phone now, sam from s&p capital iq. thanks for joining us. s&p capital iq down the block from the new york stock exchange. what have you been hearing about your offices reopening tomorrow? >> hey, maria. we know the electricity is turned off. just like here in jersey city where there's no electricity, no
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water, we do as best we can. but we're in communication with our headquarters. so we'll be instructed as soon as they find out whether we can come back in tomorrow. >> we're all trying to assess and anticipate the nature of the market when it reopens tomorrow. this is a rather unprecedented situation. what are you expecting to happen tomorrow, sam? >> well, bill, because the event was not a geopolitical one that caused for panic and uncertainty by investors, i don't believe we're going to have a sharply down day like we did when the market reopened after 9/11. i think as said in the prior segment that because it is an end of month, a rebalancing situation, we probably will have much higher than average volume. >> what other impact would you expect from the two-day shutdown of the markets? really, a shutdown of new york given the subway system and transportation. what kind of an impact might you
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expect economically? >> well, right now they're still trying to tally up the total bill. the estimates right now place it equal to ivan at about 20 to $25 billion. about half of what andrew was and about a quarter of what katrina was. but i think that number will continue to climb. unfortunately, because of a lot of what had happened was not insurable, it did happen to state property, et cetera, that this is something that will just have to be added to state debt. >> and, you know, we're going to start thinking about fundamentals again as we would normally do ahead of a jobs report scheduled to be released on friday. what would be your anticipation for that? would you think the markets will kind of take a wait-and-see attitude ahead of that number? >> i think they're still trying to figure out whether they should be optimistic. but the earnings picture has come in better than expected, rather than a 2% decline. i think investors are hoping we have a repeat of what we did in
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the prior month with the employment data and that it ends up being better. we saw today the s&p index coming up 2%. that could probably carry over to friday. >> and in terms of the jobs numbers, what kind of an impact might this two-day shutdown have on the jobs numbers? would this be tallied as well in this report for october? >> good question. i'm not sure exactly when the closure of the information takes place. i believe the household survey has already been completed and therefore would not have an impact in this go around. in terms of the actual payroll numbers, my belief is we're still looking for about 120,000 new jobs to be reported on friday. >> it all comes at a time when there's been evidence that the economy is slowing down. we've had a number of companies, even though they've be then on the bottom line, their top line, their revenue numbers, have been on the light side. what's your anticipation as we head toward the close here?
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we'll be going into the fourth quarter of the year. do you think people will want to take profits? >> i think that the market has held up exceptionally well in the face of all of this negative news we have had to deal with so far. i think the uncertainly of the election being lifted early in november combined with the most likely possibility that the congress will approve an increase in the debt ceiling and possibly even kick the can down the road in terms of the fiscal cliff could cause investors to breathe a bit of a sigh of relief. at least the rally for the month of november. >> so you're looking for a rally for the month of november. would you anticipate a good fourth quarter in terms of holiday spending? what's going to drive that? i know we've been hearing that the financial services sector is supposed to rebound in the fourth quarter. you still expect that? >> i think what could be happening is that we acknowledged that the third quarter traditionally is the weaker quarter.
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that we do see a lot of budget flush that tends to take place in the fourth quarter. let's spend it now, otherwise we won't get it back next year. based on recent retail sales, consumers have been feeling a little more encouraged to go out and spend. so while i don't believe we're going to be moving much quicker than a half-speed recovery, i don't think, also, that we're going to be getting closer to recession. >> all right, sam. thanks very much. we wish you well. hope you're safe with you and your family. >> thanks, bill. thanks, maria. it is clear. sandy has caused billions of dollars in damages. did this slowdown hurt an already limping economy? that's coming up next here. and later on the program, terry duffy on what to expect when markets resume trading tomorrow. back in a moment.
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welcome back. superstorm sandy likely to have a big impact on the economy and the employment picture. >> paul, how big of an impact on gdp could you see from sandy at this point?
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>> well y >> well, you know, interesting. moody's is calculating the cost of the storm in terms of generating dollars over the last couple days is about $20 billion. he thinks that it will probably even out as we go through. wells fargo is thinking we'll see about a 0.1% or 0.2% decrease in gdp. there is an argument to made as we move into q-1 with stimulus money coming in to recover from the storm there could be a bit of a benefit to the economy going forward. >> i guess people have to get jobs created as a result of all of the infrastructure cleanup that will be needed. what about the retail sector, paul? retailers have certainly felt the brunt of the storm here. what can we expect from retail sales? how significant of a decline are we talking about? >> citigroup is out with a story of an analysis they put together that showed they thought we would lose about 40% of retail
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sales for the northeast quarter, which makes up a big part of retail. their thinking is that leaves about 2% and 3% from comp in november and maybe perhaps lose a little as we move into q-4. so there is an impact. we may see a bit of a bump in october when sales come out on thursday. the effect of the storm actually happened -- or the positive effect with traffic coming in ahead of the storm happened in fiscal october. >> obviously, the storm is still churning right now. power outages are expected to last for quite a while. how is this going to affect the election? that is a big question that a lot of people are asking. >> that's a great question. at the end of the day, the weather becomes a big impact on election day as it relates to turnout in a normal year. this year we have this tremendous disruption going into the election, which has impact politically as it relates to the response to the storm over the next three or four days, impacts the campaign in terms of their schedules, and it could very well impact the election from a
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turnout perspective because we may still see a lot of people without power next tuesday. >> all right. you're seeing right now on the lower screen there, those of you watching us at this point, walt disney company is announcing a blockbuster acquisition. they are buying lucas film limited, the film company founded years ago by george lucas that's responsible for the "star wars" franchise, the "indiana jones franchise." the price tag roughly $4 billion. it's about the same they paid for marvel some years ago. here they are, they've made the acquisition of pixar, marvel, now lucas film. they are taking on some very big brand names in the film industry. >> they really are. they could add "star wars" to the portfolio with this big acquisition, which of course includes so much licensing of the characters. that was one of the richest
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parts of the lucas franchise. the money that comes in from licensing, bill. >> when you add on the portfolio they already got with their own disney library, this is a big deal for them. our julia bor stoululia boorsti this story. again, disney with a huge acquisition now, paying roughly $4 billion for lucas film limited. you wonder, george lucas, why he would be selling now and at such a price here. >> well, you know, i think it's great to see a big deal happening on a day that the markets are closed and business has been shut down for the last two days. a lot of expectations that the ipo story were resumed with vibrancy in the fourth quarter once we get through some of the upset in the fourth quarter. we start contraction in certain company earnings. we saw revenue light. the expectations going into the
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fourth quarter is that things pick up. it's nice to see this among the fist deals announced, even on a day when we don't have trading happening. we'll see how disney stock gets impacted tomorrow. the stock has had an extraordinary year. it's been really a big winner in 2012. >> i was just going to mention that. this comes at a time when market can't trade on this realistically right now. so it's interesting that they're making many announcement now when they haven't had any trading on disney stock for a couple days. we'll see how it opens come tomorrow morning. you can imagine what that will look like there. >> absolutely. also, we'll probably see research reports from wall street analysts going into tomorrow's trading session about their expectation for disney stock on the heels of this deal. again, we'll hear from julia boorstin on the situation coming up. up next, will trading resume on wall street tomorrow without a pitch? and you think the flooding in new york city was bad? this collapsing crane could have
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been deadly as well. we'll talk to a lawyer who says this accident will spark a lot of lawsuits from the people who have already paid millions to one day live in that luxury building. that's coming up. ♪ ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] don't just reject convention. drown it out. introducing the all-new 2013 lexus ls f sport. an entirely new pursuit. [ male announcer ] this is steve.
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